The attack on military production facilities in Iran
On Sunday 29 January, a “kamikaze” drone attack damaged an arms production and storage facility operated by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) in the city of Isfahan, located 440 kilometres south of the capital Tehran. According to currently available information, the operation was conducted using at least three small quadcopters equipped with explosives. Given the limited range of this type of drone, it is very likely that the attack originated directly from Iranian soil.
Despite the absence of official claims, the way the action was carried out and its timing suggest a direct involvement of Israel, and in particular of Mossad, the intelligence agency responsible for operations abroad. The use of quadcopters, in fact, recalls the actions carried out by Israel in Beirut in 2019, against Hezbollah missile production sites, and between 2021 and 2022 in Iran, where the nuclear infrastructure in Karaj and the drone production site in Kermanshah were hit.
The reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency on the progress of Iran’s nuclear programme may have contributed to Israel’s decision to act now. According to current data, in fact, Tehran is not far from the critical threshold needed to make nuclear devices and can already count on about 70 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% and another 1000 to 20%. Consequently, the decision to strike Isfahan, a city hosting four nuclear research sites, could also be read as a signal sent to the Iranian leadership regarding the vulnerability of its critical infrastructure. Israel may also have acted to undermine any plans to resume talks between Iran and the international community on the development of the nuclear programme. All in all, the choice of striking an IRGC site is functional to weakening what is considered as the most radical component of the complex Iranian political system, the main sponsor of the military agreement with Moscow that allowed the transfer of Shahed-136 drones to the Russian Armed Forces in the context of the conflict in Ukraine. From this perspective, the attack not only affects the interests of the Pasdaran but also aims to prove that the Iranian supply chain can be disrupted.
The Iranians, while confirming the attack, indicated that their air defence systems had come into action and had neutralised some of the kamikaze drones targeted against the national territory. However, Tehran has made no reference to the possible perpetrators of the attack and may wait to decide how to retaliate before officially taking a position. In this regard, Iranian proxy attacks against Israeli interests in the region cannot be ruled out in the near future in response to what happened.
