The Horn of Africa is one of the most economically dynamic and politically volatile regions of the entire continent. In Ethiopia, sustained GDP growth rates coexist with ethnic-based rebellions that shake the peripheral regions of the country, Eritrea seems to live suspended in an ancient time, ruled by a personalistic and party autocracy that has its roots in the Cold War while Somalia, since 1986, has been the victim of the longest civil war in Africa. In this scenario, the often violent competition between clans and ethnic-tribal groups slows down or prevents the fight against underdevelopment, poverty and the humanitarian and climate emergency, while the main international players compete for natural wealth, from copper to gas, from ports to oil. The project aims to trace the possible evolutionary trends of both growth factors and instability factors in the Horn of Africa region, in order to predict possible future scenarios and to calibrate international intervention tools with greater accuracy. Specifically, the project has the ambition to elaborate policy recommendations for Italian action in the region, with the aim of improving the national posture in the Horn of Africa and offering sustainable and lasting solutions to future problems.