ANALYSES
This is just a brief selection of our reports, as available in English. To read more analyses, kindly access our Italian website here. More reports in English will be added on a regular basis.
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The Libyan Maze. The path to elections and the future of the reconciliation process
10.09.2018 - Lorenzo Marinone
Since August 26, Tripoli has witnessed violent clashes between rival militias until UN brokered a fragile ceasefire on September 4. The dynamics and root causes of these clashes effectively sum up the main vulnerabilities of the Libyan reconciliation process. In fact, the struggle for control of the capital is not just a local contest, nor it is related only to dynamics inherent to a single region...
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The oil sector in Iran-US competition
06.08.2018 - Francesca Manenti
Almost two months after the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action - JCPOA), the Iranian government is struggling for assuring the future stability of the pact. Despite the repeated requests to partners in both Europe and Asia to find a solution for ensuring the continued implementation of the JCPOA, no concrete proposal for limiting the effects of the resumpt...
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NATO’s hub and the Alliance’s engagement towards the South
02.08.2018 - Alessandra Giada Dibenedetto
Keeping its commitment to look more carefully at the development of security dynamics in the southern area of NATO’s borders, that is in the Middle East, North and Sub-Saharan Africa, the Atlantic Alliance has created a specific center, the NATO Strategic Direction South – Hub (NSDS), with the task of monitoring these territories and the possible surfacing of crises. During the Brussel...
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The NATO Summit of Brussels between transatlantic and European dynamics
25.07.2018 - Alessandra Giada Dibenedetto
The NATO Summit of Brussels revealed to be, as expected, among the most intense and uncertain in the history of the Atlantic Alliance and saw the US President taking the spotlight by alternating moments of distention to sharp words that have shaken the participating Heads of State and Government. Central to the debate was the matter of the Defense budget, that deviated the attention from the other...
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The role of the European Union in the Western Sahara conflict
19.07.2018 - Chiara Orlassino
In two successive rulings on December 21, 2016 and February 27, 2018 the European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled that the EU-Morocco trade agreements could not be lawfully applied to the territory of Western Sahara, whose status is “separate and distinct” from Morocco. These decisions have led the EU to take steps to renegotiate the otherwise-invalidated trade deals so that they comply E...
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Towards the NATO Brussels Summit
09.07.2018 - Alessandra Giada Dibenedetto
On the 11th and 12th of July the Summit of NATO Heads of State and Government will be held in Brussels. These types of gatherings are aimed at evaluating and providing strategic direction to the activities of the Alliance and enhancing partnerships. The meeting is generally followed by the publication of an official communiqué that states the main decisions taken and, hence, NATO’s st...
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The uncertain results of the Singapore Summit and the role of China
06.07.2018 - Francesca Manenti
Today, Friday 6th of July, Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, has visited North Korea for trying to have a follow-up of the commitments agreed between the United States and North Korea after the historical meeting between President Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un, that took place on the past 12th of June in Singapore. The summit, the first one between incumbent leaders of the two countries, seems to ha...
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European Defence and the project of Military Mobility
18.06.2018 - Alessandra Giada Dibenedetto
The idea of achieving a truly European Defence has throughout the last years taken a more solid shape and has more concretely materialized with the launch in December 2017 of the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO).The latter is aimed at deepening defence cooperation among the 25 member States of the European Union (EU) that have decided to join the initiative and, he...
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Weah’s first hundred days
30.05.2018 - Livia Cesa
In Liberia, in November 2017, presidential elections took place and saw the replacement of Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, who had been ruling the country since 2006, with George Weah, who started his mandate on 22nd January 2018. Liberia is a low-income country located in western Africa; the last 30 years of its history have been shaped by two civil wars (the first one from 1989 to 1997, while the second...
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The Future of the Iran Deal without the United States
15.05.2018 - Francesca Manenti
On Tuesday, May the 8th, President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Acton (JCPOA), the deal signed with Iran in 2015 for the reconfiguration of its nuclear research program. Coming earlier than the deal’s official implementation deadline, which had been set for the 12th of May, Trump’s decision is the seal of the current Ad...
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Iraq at a crossroads. Elections and the challenges of stabilization beyond Daesh
10.05.2018 - Gabriele Iacovino e Lorenzo Marinone
Fifteen years separate the “mission accomplished” discourse, pronounced by George W. Bush standing on the deck of USS Abraham Lincoln, from the defeat of Daesh announced by the Iraqi Premier Abadi amidst the blackened ruins of Mosul. Three lustra during which Iraq was swallowed by a cyclic vortex of violence and attacks, hopes and illusions, without any solution of continuity and, abov...
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Tariffs and Iran nuclear deal: Macron and Merkel visit President Trump
08.05.2018 - Paolo Crippa
On April 23rd, US President Donald J. Trump received the French Head of State Emmanuel Macron at the White House for a three-day official visit. The meeting was marked by strong symbolic gestures, as it was an opportunity to celebrate not only the mutual understanding that binds together the two countries but also, on a strictly personal level, the two respective leaders. While, on the one hand, T...
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The Italian Gateway for BRI toward Europe
26.04.2018 - Francesca Manenti
This paper addresses the perspectives of enhancing the partnership between the European Union (EU) and China in the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). After the introductive presentation of the agreement reached so far, the paper develops in two sections, presenting the critical points that still affect EU’s attitude toward the initiative and the specific case study of Italy. T...
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The new appointments at the top of Chinese economy
16.04.2018 - Paolo Crippa
In recent months, the entire governance system of the Chinese economy has undergone considerable restructuring. In March, during the annual meeting of the National People's Congress, the legislative body charged with officiating the proposals coming from the party's leadership, the appointments of new directors at the top of the main financial institutions of the Country have been made official. O...
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The Rohingya crisis: an humanitarian and security emergency for Southeast Asia
11.04.2018 - Meredith Arndt
In the Buddhist-dominant country of Myanmar, the Rohingya are an ethnic Muslim minority who have suffered decades of discrimination. In October 2016 and August 2017, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), a Rohingya militant group, launched an attack on military and police outposts throughout the Rakhine region (home for the population) in retaliation for the previous clashes occurred with the...
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The evolution of jihadist radicalization in Asia
09.04.2018 - Gabriele Iacovino and Francesca Manenti
Introduction Nearly four years since Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announced the establishment of the “Caliphate” in Iraq by ISIS or Daesh, jihadist terrorism has become an increasingly horizontal phenomenon. ISIS represents the embodiment of a utopian dream – the reconstruction of a mythological “golden age” ruled by the strictest interpretation of Islam, as conveniently ada...
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Operation Themis and its meaning for Italy
29.03.2018 - Alessandra Giada Dibenedetto
Since almost five years now, the migratory phenomenon that from the North African and Middle Eastern coasts crosses the Mediterranean Sea and arrives in the European territory keeps on representing a challenge for those States and the agencies of the European Union (EU) that struggle containing it. With time many EU-led operations, in which Italy has always had a determining role, have been launch...
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Present and future of the common security & defence policy
01.03.2018 - Instituto Espanol de Estudios Estratègicos (IEEE) e Ce.S.I. - Centro Studi Internazionali
The European Commission Report dated 7th June 2017 States that security is one of the three priorities that cause the greatest concern to EU citizens and that over 75% of Europeans are in favour of a common defence policy. The President of the Commission himself, Jean Claude Juncker, stated when he presented the document that «the right to feel secure and protected in you...
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The blue helmets and the challenge of asymmetric conflicts
23.02.2018 - Alessandra Giada Dibenedetto
Since its foundation in 1948, the United Nations (UN) contributes to guaranteeing pace in the world through numerous actives, among which peacekeeping operations (PKO) have always obtained particular relevance. The blue helmets intervene, in the framework of chapter six of the UN Charter, in countries that have recently experienced a conflict, with the aim of starting a process of stabilization. T...
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Pakistan facing the challenge of deradicalization
17.01.2018 - Francesca Manenti
Almost three years after the bloody bombing of the Army Military School in Peshawar, occurred on 16 December 2014, in which 143 people were killed, Pakistan is pursuing a structured effort to try to eradicate the terrorist threat from the country. The strong emotional impact caused by the attack, in fact, has pushed the Pakistani authorities to start a campaign of total intolerance towards any for...
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NATO’S Gendarmerie-type Forces: a valuable tool contrasting hybrid threats in article 5 operations
22.12.2017 - Francesco Tosato
The annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 and the consequent escalation of the Donbass war in Ukraine put NATO in front of a new reality regarding the way of conducting military operations at its Eastern border. Indeed in both the cases, the Russian Federation was able to successfully conduct a complex military operation based on the use of small teams of GRU Special Forces, elite regiments of co...
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The plausible implication of Trump’s decertification of the nuclear deal with Iran
13.12.2017 - Gabriella Morrone
During the last week in October, the United States House of Representatives passed non- nuclear legislation that targets the Iran’s ballistic missile program and Iran’s support for Hezbollah. The motion for the new sanctions bill - Iran Ballistic Missiles and International Sanctions Enforcement Act (H.R. 1698) - passed almost unanimously with a vote of 423 – 2 (alongside H.R. 332...
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Geopolitical Weekly n. 272
20.10.2017 - Gabriella Morrone
Philippines On 16 October, two top Philippine ISIS affiliated leaders were killed, according to authorities, in a major ongoing standoff with Philippine security forces in the southern city of Marawi. Isnilon Hapilon, the terror group’s emir for Southeast Asia and commander of the Abu Sayyaf (one of the groups that formed ISIS in the Philippines province) and Omarkhayam Maute, leader of loc...
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Geopolitical Weekly n. 271
06.10.2017 - Gabriella Morrone
Afghanistan On the 1st of October, ten Afghan police officers were wounded in the “erroneous” and “friendly” air attack in the southern Helmand province. The Afghan air strike happened during a counterterrorism operation in which Afghan forces were attacking the Taliban front line. Helmand Governor Hayatullah Hayat announced that an investigation team has been sent to asse...
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Kim Jong-un’s nuclear ambition and the importance of the economic sanctions
29.09.2017 - Francesca Manenti
The nuclear test carried out by Pyongyang on September 3rd, the sixth led by the regime over the last decade, has exacerbated international concern over possible atomic proliferation in the Pacific.  With an estimated power of 120 kilotons, the experiment seems to have allowed the North Korean government to test a thermonuclear device, five times higher than the one tested last year.[1] Altho...
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Geopolitical Weekly n.270
29.09.2017 - Gabriella Morrone
Japan On the 28th of September, after a three-month summer recess, the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dissolved the Lower House of Parliament, paving the way for new elections. The Cabinet later approved elections for October 22nd. The Prime Minister’s choice followed his uptick in approval ratings and the disarray of the main opposition Democratic Party. In July, some polls showed tha...
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Zapad 2017 and the anxiety of NATO
15.09.2017 - Alessandra Giada Dibenedetto
On the 14th of September, Zapad 2017, the joint strategic military drill between Russia and Belarus, started. The exercise, which is expected to last one week, will be mostly led by Moscow’s Armed Forces and will take place on the territory of Belarus as well as on the western military district of Saint Petersburg (that includes also the exclave of Kaliningrad). Zapad, “west” in ...
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Myanmar and the Rohingya: an historically troubled relationship
11.09.2017 - Sara La Rocca
For the past few weeks, since 25 August 2017, a new wave of violence has erupted in Northern Rakhine State, after an attack was carried out by members of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) against Myanmar border police, leaving 71 people dead. The Rohingya, a Muslim ethnic minority residing in the northern part of the Rakhine State, in Myanmar, are considered the world’s most persecu...
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The Case of Puerto Rico – A 524-Year-Old Colony
17.07.2017 - Amanda Rivera Lebrón
On June 11, 2017, Puerto Rico held its fifth referendum with regards to its political status as a colony of the United States, to initiate a democratic process of dialogue and negotiation with the Federal government that puts an end to the centuries of colonialism the Island has been submitted to. In an attempt to claim equal rights and fair treatment to the U.S. citizens of Puerto Rico, the curr...
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The Maute: the new ISIS-affiliated group in the Philippines may be a game changer in an old conflict
12.07.2017 - Sara La Rocca
The crisis in Marawi City, Mindanao, has sparkled international attention since the very first day clashes broke out, around 4 weeks ago. Having received intelligence that the Abu Sayyaf leader and emir of the ISIS-affiliated group in the Philippines, Isnilon Hapilon, was hiding in Marawi City, on May 23 government troops raided his hideout. In order to support Hapilon, the Maute group entered Ma...
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The Economic Diplomacy of Xi Jinping
16.06.2017 - Francesca Manenti
This past January 17, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted the opening of the World Economic Forum (WEC) held in Davos. During this event the efforts being implemented to make China an example of political and economic stability for the international community were brought to light. With an economy of approximately eight trillion dollars in imports, six hundred billion dollars in foreign investment...
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The Eurasia Initiative: a corridor network for enhancing relations between the Republic of Korea and Italy
06.12.2016 - Francesca Manenti
In recent years, the dialogues between Asian and European countries through such channels as the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) and various bilateral meetings have placed increasing importance on enhancing interconnectivity among the two continents and improving inter-regional networks with a view to realizing all the potentials that could result from much higher level of exch...
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The Republic of Moldova at a Crossroads. West or East?
29.11.2016 - New Strategy Center – Romania and Centro Studi Internazionali – Italy
An Assessment of the Presidential Elections in the Republic of Moldova published by New Strategy Center – Romania and Centro Studi Internazionali – Italy The election of Igor Dodon, the socialist candidate and promoter of closer ties with the Russian Federation, as president was predictable, considering the way in which the election campaign progressed. Nonetheless, it will not radica...
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The socio-political impact of “land grabbing” in Africa and its destabilising effects
03.11.2016 - Gianluca Melis
‘Land grabbing’ is all but a new concept. The fight for land is as old as the war itself. However, these two words have assumed particular relevance and media coverage since the beginning of the 21th century, and more precisely after the 2007-2008 price-food crisis. Rather than simply ‘land grabbing’, it should be defined ‘control grabbing of lands’ as it is ess...
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ASEAN Outlook: Challenges and perspectives for Italy and Europe in Southeast Asia
09.06.2016 - Francesca Manenti
Officially founded on 8th August 1967, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was born out of the initiative of the Philippines Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore, in order to foster the political and economic cooperation in the region and to create an entity capable of guaranteeing stability throughout the whole Southeast Asia. With the progressive enlargement of its membersh...
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The difficult management of the North Korean nuclear threat
09.05.2016 - Francesca Manenti
The beginning of 2016 saw a serious deterioration of the relations between North Korea and the International Community. The latest nuclear test, which occurred on January 6, and the following long-range missile launch draw the attention of the International Community to Pyongyang’s research program for the development of atomic weapons. The government of North Korea has always considered ac...
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The resurgence of extremist violence in Indonesia
15.03.2016 - Francesca Manenti
On the last 14th of January a group of armed men attacked the Jalan Thamrin district of Jakarta, the business and commercial heart of the Indonesian capital. A series of explosions, one of which caused by two suicide attackers, near the central street of Thamrin street caused two people’s death and almost thirty wounded. Apparently, the assault would have been a simultaneous attack against t...
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Pakistan’s new role in fighting terrorism in South Asia
09.02.2016 - Francesca Manenti, Francesco Tosato
Pakistan has been facing a deep security crisis for almost fifteen years, which is rooted in and continues to be fueled by the many years of instability in neighboring Afghanistan. The porosity of about 2,500 kilometers of border between the two countries, in fact, has always favored the passage of fighters who were engaged in the Afghan territory, first against the Soviets in the '80s and, s...
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Iran's international posture in Rouhani's Era
25.01.2016 - Gabriele Iacovino, Francesca Manenti
This paper aims to present the current situation of Iran's foreign policy. In particular, the purpose of this publication is to analyze the national priorities identified by President Hassan Rouhani and the strategy that the moderate leader is implementing in order to pursue his own agenda, without altering the traditional internal equilibrium. To this end, the report will address three aspects. F...
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Brazil’s Soft Power as a tool for world power emerging process
18.01.2016 - Francesca Centracchio
Brazil is being referred to as an emerging world power more frequently as we move into the 21st century. Its economy has risen to be in the top ten internationally and Brazil has started to make a name for itself on the international stage. A unique aspect of Brazil’s rise is its abundance of soft power. Soft power is defined as a persuasive approach to international relations, in which a co...
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Donald Trump: Serious Presidential Candidate or Not
09.11.2015 - Francesca Centracchio
Donald Trump’s announcement to run in the 2016 Presidential election was very controversial. Many had a hard time taking him seriously because he almost ran in 2011 when he was trying to undermine President Obama, but he never took the steps to start a legitimate campaign. He is best known as a real estate mogul, host of a popular TV show called The Apprentice, and for his infamous comb-over...
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Analysis of Possible Solution to the Crisis in Libya
05.03.2015 - Marco Di Liddo - Gabriele Iacovino
In recent weeks, with the Libyan civil war as a backdrop, we have witnessed the Caliphate of Bayda’s overpowering entrance into the scene, a jihadist organisation based in Derna and officially affiliated to the Islamic State of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Indeed, taking advantage of the serious instability that has characterised Libya since 2011 and in the context of the confrontation between the ...
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President Obama’s remarks concerning IS
14.09.2014 - Elizabeth Harris
World leaders and senior officials from 60 countries met together in Cardiff, Wales for the first NATO summit since 2012 on September 4th and 5th. During the summit, the alliance discussed and made decisions about such issues as their on-going action in Afghanistan, recent unrest in Ukraine and other such important world security issues as the rise of the terrorist organization of Islamic State (I...
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The enhancing role of ASEAN for the stability of the South China Sea
30.07.2014 - Andrea Margelletti
Paper for the conference "Legal issues relating to China’s placement of oil rig in Vietnam's exclusive economic zone and continental shelf" 25 - 27 July, 2014 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. The increase of the tensions in the South China Sea is an overwhelming threat not only for the stability of the Pacific region but also for the global security. Thanks to its geographical position, in fact, ...
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After the war: political solutions to the conflicts in the Sahel region
09.09.2013 - Marco Di Liddo
On 28 July the Malian population will be called to the polls for the election of the new President of the Republic. It is a historic event, resulting from months of negotiations between the central government and resistance movements, which has profound political significance and considerable implications for the security of the country and of the entire region of the Sahel. Only a few months ago,...
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Afghanistan: Don't jeopardise the achievements
03.09.2013 - Amb Dr Zia Nezam
What follows is an article by Afghanistan's Ambassador to Italy, His Excellency Dr Zia Nezam. Afghanistan has suffered more than three decades of foreign interferences, occupation and conflicts, but Afghan people have never given up. Over the past 12 years our country has overcome serious challenges and strived to move ahead. With the support of the international community and thanks to the mobil...
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Pashtunwali for Peace
20.11.2012 - Luca La Bella
After over a decade spent fighting in Afghanistan, the West should commend the Pakistani military establishment on a masterful strategy, namely their continuing support for the Pashtun insurgency in the country. The fact that they have steadfastly refused to change approach over the past 10 years, despite huge US enticements and enormous punishment insofar as their image is concerned, internationa...
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